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February 2, 2007

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Headline News of February 2, 2007

A fisherman at the drying Dongting Lake in Hunan, China
It is "very likely" that climate change is the result of human activity, the global body on climate science says.

At least 10 people are killed in Gaza as fighting rages between Hamas and Fatah, scuppering a three-day truce.
The UN's Kosovo envoy is set to recommend the province be allowed to separate from Serbia, the BBC learns.


BBC news transcript with photos
Transcript in the news of February 2, 2007


>> The planet is heating up. The oceans will rise and the world's leading scientists agree -- mankind is to blame. Fight ages in Gaza. The Palestinian ceasefire goes up in smoke. A compromise for Kosovo. A U.S. Plan says yes to statehood, no to independence. This is bbc world. Welcome. Also in this programme, reaction to the U.N. Report on global warming. We'll be live if Beijing and Delhi in 15 minutes from now.

>> Climate change is not natural, it's man-made. That's the conclusion of an international panel of experts. The intergovernmental panel on climate change says they're at least 90% certain that human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are causing warming to the planet's surface. Levels of greenhouse gases, they say, are higher now than for hundreds of thousands of years. The scientists warn that by their best estimates global temperatures could rise by three degrees celsius by the end of the century, though it could be more. Let's go live to Paris and our correspondent there. 45C33644.JPG

>> Could push temperatures up.

>> Welcome to Paris where we've had a very significant report. It's the culmination of years of research, 2,500 scientists took part. It had the unanimous approval by all the government representatives here. They include the governments of the united states, of Saudi Arabia and it's a warning on climate change. (Inaudible)

>> Failing crop, the signs of a warming world are everywhere. Scientists have long debated what's behind the changes, but today in Paris, a stark announcement: The world's leading climate experts have published a report saying there's no longer any doubt -- climate change is man made.

>> Ladies and gentlemen, the second of February, 2007 here in Paris will perhaps one day be remembered as the day when the question mark was removed from the debate about whether climate change had anything to do with human activity on this planet. This is the key message of this report. It is an unequivocal set of pieces of evidence that have been put before the world about how fossil fuel use, agricultural and land use change are fundamentally affecting the systems on our planet. 45C336A0.JPG

>> This is the most comprehensive survey ever carried out into the world's weather, land and ocean systems, and it says that in the next century temperatures could go up by as much as 6.4 degrees centigrade. Sea levels may rise more than half a meter. And all of this could have devastating consequences for humans and wildlife. The report says tropical storms will be more frequent and more intense. Heat wave will last longer. The effects of climate change will continue well beyond this century.

>> All we say in the report is that warping is unequivocal and what we go on to say then is here is all of the evidence from many different what we call variables, so this relates to global temperatures, changes in snow cover, changes in sea ice, the warming of the oceans that we can observe, the melting of glaciers, the rising of sea level, which integrates all these things together, changes in storms, changes in rainfall patterns, increases in drought. All of this is now unequivocally showing that the planet is warming, and what is more, we are... we can now say that humans are the main cause of this. 45C336EB.JPG

>> The world's climate experts say the science is now beyond doubt. The question is: How will governments react? In Britain, ministers say the window of opportunity to avoid dangerous climate change is closing more quickly than previously thought. What's needed is an urgent global response.

>> Well, we're lucky to be joined here in Paris today by three of the key authors of this report. The report was worked out over several day, very difficult negotiation, but you did in the end reach consensus. If I can start with you, Gabrielle, how difficult was it to reach consensus?

>> We were just words missing essentially. I think there was not a really big debate about this because it had been written up and agreed on. It was just how to put it in a balanced way and make it understandable to policy-makers. 45C33725.JPG

>> Some countries less keen on strong wording on climb change for obviously political reasons.

>> Some countries less keen and some countries more keen. There was a debate and we resolved it.

>> Nathaniel, I know you're an expert on sea level rises, and this report say, does it not, that the sea will continue to rise for centuries because of the carbon that we have already emitted?

>> Absolutely. It says some pretty profound things. If you go beyond 2100, the report, if we actually reach warm enough temperatures, the report actually says that Greenland will be virtually eliminated. So the consequence of that is seven metres of sea level over millennia. We don't expect it to be fast or very rapid, but in the scenarios, it's quite feasible that we'll see Greenland eliminated. That I think is extraordinary. 45C33762.JPG

>> So we should be very alarmed. Ha should governments do?

>> Well, governments should do something. How about that? I think if you look at the document, you can actually work out where we should be trying to track. You know, there's six scenarios in this document. One of them is all about heavy fossil fuel use. The others are much more balanced and technologically driven kind of scenario, and we can make a choice actually. We can choose between the scenarios that lead to a really warm future or we can choose between the scenarios that are less warm. And this document, this document itself carries that choice, and this is a choice that, you know, really society has to make. We're providing the information. We're doing the service. You've got the information to some extent. We have to do a little bit of communication, but really it's up to society and governments to make decisions about how we want to live in the future. 45C337A0.JPG

>> Can I bring you in now, Neville Nichol, another of the main authors. I know you're an expert on hurricanes and other extreme weather conditions. Are we expecting more of those as a result of the global warming?

>> There are things we can say with certainty, system certainly in this report, and we do. The warm is warming, unequivocal evidence the world is warming, sea level is rising and we're to blame. There are other things like are hurricanes increasing, are they going to get worse, is that due to us? We're a lot less certain. We think there is evidence that's suggestive that hurricanes are becoming more intense and that might continue in the future, but it's a really difficult call to make. 45C337C9.JPG

>> What then is the main message that you want to reach the world today as a result of your report?

>> The main message is that global warming is real. It's time to stop pretending that it's not and it's a serious problem. It deserves serious consideration by governments and individuals.

>> Thanks very much and thanks to all three of these lead authors that all took part in the drafting of this very important report that will inform negotiations that it is hoped will lead to a successor agreement to the Kyoto protocols. Certainly the message from here today is there is a lot of work to be done and a real sense of urgency I would same back to you.

>> Caroline Hawley reporting from Paris. We'll have reaction from Beijing and Delhi in ten minutes' time. Fighting between rival Palestinian groups in Gaza is getting worse. At least 11 people have been kill since Thursday on supporters of Hamas and Fatah. A ceasefire brokered four days ago is now in Tatters. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is to meet with an exiled leader on Tuesday in America camp earlier I spoke to our correspondent Alan Johnson in Gaza who described the violent scene.

>> All through the morning again and again we've heard waves of gunfire coming from the streets around us here in the centre of Gaza city, although there does seem to be a lull now perhaps because we're into the time of Friday prayers. But just overlooking the presidential compound, one of the real nerve centres of the fatah camp's effort here, soldiers milling around every few minutes, an ambulance will go sweeping through the compound ten minutes ago one of the big black jeeps that the presidential guard used when shooting through this road here on its way, load with gunmen, to one of the checkpoints no doubt. Earlier on out in the city we understand that Hamas forces stormed, overran, captured a police compound and then celebrated in the streets nearby. Overnight, of course, a major psychological blow for the Fatah side in this when they overran the Islamic university, very much a Hamas bastion.

>> Have they ever seen anything like this before?

>> The sightseeing really does seem to have moved to a new level. We've seen many outbursts of factional confrontation, but they mostly involve skirmishing on street corners which is over fairly quickly. Now we see these heavily armed, well-organised units going at each other, conducting quite big military operations, attacking the central institutions of the other camp people really will be worried that they're looking at a confrontation on a new level here now.

>> Alan Johnson reporting there. The Albanians were hoping for independence. The Serbs insisted Kosovo could not break away. In the end even the man responsible accepted his plan for the future of Kosovo was a compromise. Martti Ahtisaari, the U.N. Special envoy, has proposed the province should govern itself democratically but should remain under international supervision. He stopped short of using the word "independence." And NATO, he said, should stay. Already Serbia has voiced its opposition. Joining me from Belgrade is our correspondent nick Horton. Nick, what's being said in Serbia? 45C33896.JPG

>> Well, Martti Ahtisaari has just left the building that I'm in now where he's given his first public comments on the report that he spent a year putting together. He's now on his way to Pristina in Kosovo to speak to Albanian leaders there. He said his proposals would lead to a viable and stable future for Kosovo, a future where all communities could live in a dignified and economically more sustainable life. He went into some detail about some of the provisions, for instance, 40 key cultural and religious sites would have special protective zones under this plan, but at the same time, as you refer to there, there is an international civilian representative who would supervise the implementation of the settlement and NATO troops would also remain in Kosovo for as long as necessary, he said. 45C338CD.JPG

>> In Belgrade, thank you. Now Tanya's here with news about British airways.

>> Yes, and how much the strike that never happened actually still cost it. British airways may have avoided a strike in the last few day, but the threat of industrial action has still landed it with a huge bill. Worried that flights would be cancelled, customers made other plan, leaving planes to fly empty. The loss of revenue to B.A.. Was more than $150 million. Also B.A.. Says in the last three months of last year profits fell to under a quarter of a billion dollars. That's compared to one-third of a billion for the same period the year before. And Japanese carmaker Nissan says that weak demand in the united states has hit its bottom line. Profits in the last three months of last year are down by nearly a quarter. Last year Nissan was overtaken by Honda as japans' second biggest car manufacturer. There was lack of new models and high fuel prices also turned off customers. The news is a big disappointment to investors because Japanese automakers as a whole have found great popularity at the expense of their American rivals, and they've also benefited from a weak yen. Back in Europe, it looks as if the Spanish energy group will this Friday end up in German ownership. The Spanish government has fought hard and controversial battle to keep it in Spanish 45C3391D.JPGhands. Potential bidders have until the end of Friday to make an official offer, but late on Thursday the Spanish utility gas natural withdrew its $32 billion for the company leaving the only offer available from eon of Germany. Across the Atlantic, good news for low-paid workers in the U.S.. The senate has voted to raise the minimum wage to $7.10. That's a rise of more than $2 over two years. The newly empowered democrat majority has seen the rise as a priority for some time. Senators also voted to raise taxes on high-earning executives. Back to you.

>> Tanya, thank you. Stay with bbc world. Still to come on this programme, we'll be live in deli and Beijing for reaction to the climate report. The violence in Gaza will throw into shock new attempts to spark the middle east peace process. Matthew price reports.

>> By Mao the west bank should have become an independent Palestine, but it's still under Israeli occupation. For years there's been no progress on the international plan known as the road map which was -- the road map which was meant to create Palestinian state by 2005. When you come frequently to the Palestinian areas, it's very hard to have any sort of optimism that there might be a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians any time soon. Broadly speaking, politicians on both sides know what such a deal would look like, but at the moment there doesn't seem to be either the imagination or even the willingness from the international community to push through such a deal. And some senior Palestinian figures believe time is running out.

>> I think time is of the essence. Look at the bigger picture in the region. If the opportunity is not grasped now, you're going to turn the lights out in this region. I don't know when you'll put the lights back on.

>> This is what the moderates are concerned about, the rise of political Islam, in this case hamas. When they won the Palestinian elections a year ago, most of the international community cut off funding to try to weaken hamas. But Israel's deputy defence minister told us there's a better way of doing that, talk now to moderate Palestinians.

>> To defeat hamas, to defeat the extremists, you have to portray a concrete political plan. That's why to start now negotiations is going forth. 45C339C0.JPG

>> There have been similar calls for years. Meanwhile, the people suffer. Matthew price, bbc news, Ramallah.

>> This is bbc world. The main news: The planet is heating up. The oceans will rise and the world's leading scientists agree human activity is to blame. Two of the nations with the biggest potential impact on climb change are, of course, China and India. How will these emerging giants respond to the challenge? Our China correspondent James Reynolds is in Beijing and from Delhi damian grammaticas. James, what's likely to be the reaction in Beijing to this report?

>> I think that will be a cautious reaction, and I think also china will be slightly angry. It believes that it is being blamed for being the workshop of the world, for having such an industry, for providing products for the rest of the world. It says this: The west, developed in the 19th and 20th century, breaking all the rules china is now meant to abide by. It also said people in the west spend about six times as much carbon her head as people here in china, but when you look behind me and you see the amount of traffic that there is here in the evening rush hour, when you see the sky scrappers there are, the kind of cranes that you can't see, the kind of power stations that you can't see, you realise this: China is in the midst of an industrial revolution the likes of which the world has never seen, and it is powering this revolution with coal, with old-fashioned, low-grade coal which is causing pollution and which is leading to climb change, therefore, the key point is this: Unless china changes the way it is developing and expanding, the efforts of the rest of the world to rye to stop climate change will almost come to nothing.

>> Over now Delhi and damian grammaticas. A similar picture in India, another growing economy.

>> Yes, exactly. India is hot on the heels of china. Growth here now also 10%. India is about the world's fourth biggest emitter of greenhouse gases along with china. The two fastest-growing sources of carbon emissions in the world. India's position very, very similar. It will be very cautious about this report because it will simply increase the pressure on this country to do something about curbing its emissions. India at the moment still has no target for reducing greenhouse gas output. And India will come under much, much more pressure to do something about it. It's a huge problem here, the size of the numbers. Think about this, 1 billion Indians. Today about half of them, 500 million still don't have regular electricity connection. That number the government wants to increase. It wants to spread electricity. It wants people's living standards to go up. 45C33A79.JPGIndia says that's a priority. But that will mean much more greenhouse gas output. India's answer says the rich countries that have already developed and pumped out gas in the a past century must pay. They must give countries like India and china clean fuel technology and give India nuclear fuel for civilian nuclear reactors. It won't be cheap, but India doesn't want to foot the bill.

>> Damian gragrammaticas in deli and jams Reynolds, thank you. We'll have more reaction about climate change throughout the day on bbc world. We'll be spotlighting the issues raise. For more information, go to Stay with bbc world. Still to come on this programme, a tough challenge in Afghanistan as Britain sends 800 more troops. We have a special report. China's President, hu jintao, has now reached Sudan on the latest stage of his African tour. China is Khartoum's biggest trading partner, so there's pressure of it to use its influence to help the people of Darfur. 45C33AC1.JPG

>> Noodle soup in the centre of Khartoum. This canteen serves up the taste of home for hundreds of Chinese workers in this part of Sudan's capital. Travel agents, builders, engineers and electricians are all part of the deepening ties between Africa's biggest country and china's booming economy. China's relationship with Sudan stretches back almost 50 years, but it was only in the 1990s when political pressure forced western companies out that Sudan gave China the green light to send thousands of workers in. This is are most of them have gone. The swampy oil fields of southern Sudan. China has built a pipeline and invested billions of dollars to make sure that they take home 80% of Sudan's oil. 45C33AF5.JPG

>> When they came in, they wanted to help us to produce the oil because they needed it. So we really can't say much about that. They did not impose any conditions on us. We cannot sit around and say wait until, for example, the united states says that we've begin a good country.

>> This Chinese-built conference hall is where the two presidents will sit face to face. With the world at a loss over how the stop the war in Darfur, China is under pressure to use its influence and force the Sudanese government to accept United Nations peacekeepers and the ceasefire. Sudan's economy has boomed on the back of its no-questions-asked relationship with the far east. Jonah Fisher, bbc news, Khartoum. 45C33B2F.JPG

>> Britain is sending 800 more troops to Afghanistan. The move comes as the British head of NATO in the country, general David Richards, prepares to leave. His time in Afghanistan coincided with the heaviest fighting there since 2001. Our chief diplomatic correspondent -- our chief diplomatic correspondent has been with the general during his last week in command and set us this report from Kabul.

>> In the skies over Afghanistan, NATO's generals come and go on a trip to the southern city of Kandahar, David Richard surveys his domain, expanded hugely since he arrived. NATO forces now operating throughout this rugged land. This is his last visit to the south, scene of so much intense fighting during his time in charge. There's plenty of routine activity on the base today, but a sense, too, that tough times lie ahead. For all this general Richard seems well pleased with his nine months as isaf commander. 45C33B71.JPG

>> There's a lot that we still need to accomplish, and I do genuinely believe that we've shown that NATO can fight and win these things. We have brought lots of people together and things are looking better.

>> NATO can certainly call on greater resources than ever. There are still complaints but new commitments will make the allianz much more capable -- the alliance much more capable. This is an absolutely key moment for NATO. After the heavy fighting of last year, there are lots of people predicting a spring offensive, possibly in the coming weeks. The Americans have sent in lots of extra men and machines for just such a possibility, but while NATO continues to prove itself on the battlefield, just how much progress is really being made towards putting this country together again? In countless villages across the country, women are being encouraged to take out loans and set up small businesses. It's a war on poverty that grabs fewer headlines than fighting in the south. But even in Kabul, it's not hard to find people living in abject conditions. Development and reconstruction mean little to returning refugees clinging on in the capital's freezing slums. It's a world away from isaf's newly opened $6 million joint operations centre. Here NATO partners sit together and plan their war. The screens tell us incidents far and wide. As one headquarters hands over to another, David Richards has 45C33BD5.JPGcome to bid farewell. For all his success, he knows this operation has many, many years to run. And so from one far-flung outpost to another, this great international endeavour goes on. It's probably in better shape than it's ever been, but it's hugely costly and its success is still far from assured. Paul Adam, bbc news, Kabul.

>> And you can get more information on the news in this bulletin by logging on to our web site, bbcnews.Com, and you can also have your say by clicking on have your say link. <

* Caution:  This transcript is intended to be an aid to listening as well as a record of spoken news.  But because this coarse transcript is not always identical with spoken news, one should refer to the news on video-on-demand at this site when quoting any sentences.



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