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Transcript in the news of
February 2, 2007
>> The planet is heating up. The oceans will rise and the world's leading
scientists agree -- mankind is to blame. Fight ages in Gaza. The Palestinian
ceasefire goes up in smoke. A compromise for Kosovo. A U.S. Plan says yes to
statehood, no to independence. This is bbc world. Welcome. Also in this
programme, reaction to the U.N. Report on global warming. We'll be live if
Beijing and Delhi in 15 minutes from now.
>> Climate change is not natural, it's man-made. That's
the conclusion of an international panel of experts. The
intergovernmental panel on climate change says they're at least 90% certain that
human emissions of greenhouse gases rather than natural variations are causing
warming to the planet's surface. Levels of greenhouse gases, they say, are
higher now than for hundreds of thousands of years. The scientists warn that by
their best estimates global temperatures could rise by three degrees celsius by
the end of the century, though it could be more. Let's go live to Paris and our
correspondent there.
>> Could push temperatures up.
>> Welcome to Paris where we've had a very significant report. It's the
culmination of years of research, 2,500 scientists took part. It had the
unanimous approval by all the government representatives here. They include the
governments of the united states, of Saudi Arabia and it's a warning on climate
change. (Inaudible)
>> Failing crop, the signs of a warming world are everywhere. Scientists have
long debated what's behind the changes, but today in Paris, a stark
announcement: The world's leading climate experts have published a report saying
there's no longer any doubt -- climate change is man made.
>> Ladies and gentlemen, the second of February, 2007 here in Paris will
perhaps one day be remembered as the day when the question mark was removed from
the debate about whether climate change had anything to do with human activity
on this planet. This is the key message of this report. It is an unequivocal set
of pieces of evidence that have been put before the world about how fossil fuel
use, agricultural and land use change are fundamentally affecting the systems on
our planet.
>> This is the most comprehensive survey ever carried out into the world's
weather, land and ocean systems, and it says that in the next century
temperatures could go up by as much as 6.4 degrees centigrade. Sea levels may
rise more than half a meter. And all of this could have devastating consequences
for humans and wildlife. The report says tropical storms will be more frequent
and more intense. Heat wave will last longer. The effects of climate change will
continue well beyond this century.
>> All we say in the report is that warping is unequivocal and what we go on
to say then is here is all of the evidence from many different what we call
variables, so this relates to global temperatures, changes in snow cover,
changes in sea ice, the warming of the oceans that we can observe, the melting
of glaciers, the rising of sea level, which integrates all these things
together, changes in storms, changes in rainfall patterns, increases in drought.
All of this is now unequivocally showing that the planet is warming, and what is
more, we are... we can now say that humans are the main cause of this.
>> The world's climate experts say the science is now beyond doubt. The
question is: How will governments react? In Britain, ministers say the window of
opportunity to avoid dangerous climate change is closing more quickly than
previously thought. What's needed is an urgent global response.
>> Well, we're lucky to be joined here in Paris today by three of the key
authors of this report. The report was worked out over several day, very
difficult negotiation, but you did in the end reach consensus. If I can start
with you, Gabrielle, how difficult was it to reach consensus?
>> We were just words missing essentially. I think there was not a really big
debate about this because it had been written up and agreed on. It was just how
to put it in a balanced way and make it understandable to policy-makers.
>> Some countries less keen on strong wording on climb change for obviously
political reasons.
>> Some countries less keen and some countries more keen. There was a debate
and we resolved it.
>> Nathaniel, I know you're an expert on sea level rises, and this report
say, does it not, that the sea will continue to rise for centuries because of
the carbon that we have already emitted?
>> Absolutely. It says some pretty profound things. If you go beyond 2100,
the report, if we actually reach warm enough temperatures, the report actually
says that Greenland will be virtually eliminated. So the consequence of that is
seven metres of sea level over millennia. We don't expect it to be fast or very
rapid, but in the scenarios, it's quite feasible that we'll see Greenland
eliminated. That I think is extraordinary.
>> So we should be very alarmed. Ha should governments do?
>> Well, governments should do something. How about that? I think if you look
at the document, you can actually work out where we should be trying to track.
You know, there's six scenarios in this document. One of them is all about heavy
fossil fuel use. The others are much more balanced and technologically driven
kind of scenario, and we can make a choice actually. We can choose between the
scenarios that lead to a really warm future or we can choose between the
scenarios that are less warm. And this document, this document itself carries
that choice, and this is a choice that, you know, really society has to make.
We're providing the information. We're doing the service. You've got the
information to some extent. We have to do a little bit of communication, but
really it's up to society and governments to make decisions about how we want to
live in the future.
>> Can I bring you in now, Neville Nichol, another of the main authors. I
know you're an expert on hurricanes and other extreme weather conditions. Are we
expecting more of those as a result of the global warming?
>> There are things we can say with certainty, system certainly in this
report, and we do. The warm is warming, unequivocal evidence the world is
warming, sea level is rising and we're to blame. There are other things like are
hurricanes increasing, are they going to get worse, is that due to us? We're a
lot less certain. We think there is evidence that's suggestive that hurricanes
are becoming more intense and that might continue in the future, but it's a
really difficult call to make.
>> What then is the main message that you want to reach the world today as a
result of your report?
>> The main message is that global warming is real. It's time to stop
pretending that it's not and it's a serious problem. It deserves serious
consideration by governments and individuals.
>> Thanks very much and thanks to all three of these lead authors that all
took part in the drafting of this very important report that will inform
negotiations that it is hoped will lead to a successor agreement to the Kyoto
protocols. Certainly the message from here today is there is a lot of work to be
done and a real sense of urgency I would same back to you.
>> Caroline Hawley reporting from Paris. We'll have reaction from Beijing and
Delhi in ten minutes' time. Fighting between rival Palestinian groups in Gaza is
getting worse. At least 11 people have been kill since Thursday on supporters of
Hamas and Fatah. A ceasefire brokered four days ago is now in Tatters.
Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is to meet with an exiled leader
on Tuesday in America camp earlier I spoke to our correspondent Alan Johnson in
Gaza who described the violent scene.
>> All through the morning again and again we've heard waves of gunfire
coming from the streets around us here in the centre of Gaza city, although
there does seem to be a lull now perhaps because we're into the time of Friday
prayers. But just overlooking the presidential compound, one of the real nerve
centres of the fatah camp's effort here, soldiers milling around every few
minutes, an ambulance will go sweeping through the compound ten minutes ago one
of the big black jeeps that the presidential guard used when shooting through
this road here on its way, load with gunmen, to one of the checkpoints no doubt.
Earlier on out in the city we understand that Hamas forces stormed, overran,
captured a police compound and then celebrated in the streets nearby. Overnight,
of course, a major psychological blow for the Fatah side in this when they
overran the Islamic university, very much a Hamas bastion.
>> Have they ever seen anything like this before?
>> The sightseeing really does seem to have moved to a new level. We've seen
many outbursts of factional confrontation, but they mostly involve skirmishing
on street corners which is over fairly quickly. Now we see these heavily armed,
well-organised units going at each other, conducting quite big military
operations, attacking the central institutions of the other camp people really
will be worried that they're looking at a confrontation on a new level here now.
>> Alan Johnson reporting there. The Albanians were hoping for independence.
The Serbs insisted Kosovo could not break away. In the end even the man
responsible accepted his plan for the future of Kosovo was a compromise. Martti
Ahtisaari, the U.N. Special envoy, has proposed the province should govern
itself democratically but should remain under international supervision. He
stopped short of using the word "independence." And NATO, he said, should stay.
Already Serbia has voiced its opposition. Joining me from Belgrade is our
correspondent nick Horton. Nick, what's being said in Serbia?
>> Well, Martti Ahtisaari has just left the building that I'm in now where
he's given his first public comments on the report that he spent a year putting
together. He's now on his way to Pristina in Kosovo to speak to Albanian leaders
there. He said his proposals would lead to a viable and stable future for
Kosovo, a future where all communities could live in a dignified and
economically more sustainable life. He went into some detail about some of the
provisions, for instance, 40 key cultural and religious sites would have special
protective zones under this plan, but at the same time, as you refer to there,
there is an international civilian representative who would supervise the
implementation of the settlement and NATO troops would also remain in Kosovo for
as long as necessary, he said.
>> In Belgrade, thank you. Now Tanya's here with news about British airways.
>> Yes, and how much the strike that never happened actually still cost it.
British airways may have avoided a strike in the last few day, but the threat of
industrial action has still landed it with a huge bill. Worried that flights
would be cancelled, customers made other plan, leaving planes to fly empty. The
loss of revenue to B.A.. Was more than $150 million. Also B.A.. Says in the last
three months of last year profits fell to under a quarter of a billion dollars.
That's compared to one-third of a billion for the same period the year before.
And Japanese carmaker Nissan says that weak demand in the united states has hit
its bottom line. Profits in the last three months of last year are down by
nearly a quarter. Last year Nissan was overtaken by Honda as japans' second
biggest car manufacturer. There was lack of new models and high fuel prices also
turned off customers. The news is a big disappointment to investors because
Japanese automakers as a whole have found great popularity at the expense of
their American rivals, and they've also benefited from a weak yen. Back in
Europe, it looks as if the Spanish energy group will this Friday end up in
German ownership. The Spanish government has fought hard and controversial
battle to keep it in Spanish
 hands.
Potential bidders have until the end of Friday to make an official offer, but
late on Thursday the Spanish utility gas natural withdrew its $32 billion for
the company leaving the only offer available from eon of Germany. Across the
Atlantic, good news for low-paid workers in the U.S.. The senate has voted to
raise the minimum wage to $7.10. That's a rise of more than $2 over two years.
The newly empowered democrat majority has seen the rise as a priority for some
time. Senators also voted to raise taxes on high-earning executives. Back to
you.
>> Tanya, thank you. Stay with bbc world. Still to come on this programme,
we'll be live in deli and Beijing for reaction to the climate report. The
violence in Gaza will throw into shock new attempts to spark the middle east
peace process. Matthew price reports.
>> By Mao the west bank should have become an independent Palestine, but it's
still under Israeli occupation. For years there's been no progress on the
international plan known as the road map which was -- the road map which was
meant to create Palestinian state by 2005. When you come frequently to the
Palestinian areas, it's very hard to have any sort of optimism that there might
be a negotiated settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians any time soon.
Broadly speaking, politicians on both sides know what such a deal would look
like, but at the moment there doesn't seem to be either the imagination or even
the willingness from the international community to push through such a deal.
And some senior Palestinian figures believe time is running out.
>> I think time is of the essence. Look at the bigger picture in the region.
If the opportunity is not grasped now, you're going to turn the lights out in
this region. I don't know when you'll put the lights back on.
>> This is what the moderates are concerned about, the rise of political
Islam, in this case hamas. When they won the Palestinian elections a year ago,
most of the international community cut off funding to try to weaken hamas. But
Israel's deputy defence minister told us there's a better way of doing that,
talk now to moderate Palestinians.
>> To defeat hamas, to defeat the extremists, you have to portray a concrete
political plan. That's why to start now negotiations is going forth.
>> There have been similar calls for years. Meanwhile, the people suffer.
Matthew price, bbc news, Ramallah.
>> This is bbc world. The main news: The planet is heating up. The oceans
will rise and the world's leading scientists agree human activity is to blame.
Two of the nations with the biggest potential impact on climb change are, of
course, China and India. How will these emerging giants respond to the
challenge? Our China correspondent James Reynolds is in Beijing and from Delhi
damian grammaticas. James, what's likely to be the reaction in Beijing to this
report?
>> I think that will be a cautious reaction, and I think also china will be
slightly angry. It believes that it is being blamed for being the workshop of
the world, for having such an industry, for providing products for the rest of
the world. It says this: The west, developed in the 19th and 20th century,
breaking all the rules china is now meant to abide by. It also said people in
the west spend about six times as much carbon her head as people here in china,
but when you look behind me and you see the amount of traffic that there is here
in the evening rush hour, when you see the sky scrappers there are, the kind of
cranes that you can't see, the kind of power stations that you can't see, you
realise this: China is in the midst of an industrial revolution the likes of
which the world has never seen, and it is powering this revolution with coal,
with old-fashioned, low-grade coal which is causing pollution and which is
leading to climb change, therefore, the key point is this: Unless china changes
the way it is developing and expanding, the efforts of the rest of the world to
rye to stop climate change will almost come to nothing.
>> Over now Delhi and damian grammaticas. A similar picture in India, another
growing economy.
>> Yes, exactly. India is hot on the heels of china. Growth here now also
10%. India is about the world's fourth biggest emitter of greenhouse gases along
with china. The two fastest-growing sources of carbon emissions in the world.
India's position very, very similar. It will be very cautious about this report
because it will simply increase the pressure on this country to do something
about curbing its emissions. India at the moment still has no target for
reducing greenhouse gas output. And India will come under much, much more
pressure to do something about it. It's a huge problem here, the size of the
numbers. Think about this, 1 billion Indians. Today about half of them, 500
million still don't have regular electricity connection. That number the
government wants to increase. It wants to spread electricity. It wants people's
living standards to go up.
 India
says that's a priority. But that will mean much more greenhouse gas output.
India's answer says the rich countries that have already developed and pumped
out gas in the a past century must pay. They must give countries like India and
china clean fuel technology and give India nuclear fuel for civilian nuclear
reactors. It won't be cheap, but India doesn't want to foot the bill.
>> Damian gragrammaticas in deli and jams Reynolds, thank you. We'll have
more reaction about climate change throughout the day on bbc world. We'll be
spotlighting the issues raise. For more information, go to bbcnews.com/climatewatch.
Stay with bbc world. Still to come on this programme, a tough challenge in
Afghanistan as Britain sends 800 more troops. We have a special report. China's
President, hu jintao, has now reached Sudan on the latest stage of his African
tour. China is Khartoum's biggest trading partner, so there's pressure of it to
use its influence to help the people of Darfur.
>> Noodle soup in the centre of Khartoum. This canteen serves up the taste of
home for hundreds of Chinese workers in this part of Sudan's capital. Travel
agents, builders, engineers and electricians are all part of the deepening ties
between Africa's biggest country and china's booming economy. China's
relationship with Sudan stretches back almost 50 years, but it was only in the
1990s when political pressure forced western companies out that Sudan gave China
the green light to send thousands of workers in. This is are most of them have
gone. The swampy oil fields of southern Sudan. China has built a pipeline and
invested billions of dollars to make sure that they take home 80% of Sudan's
oil.
>> When they came in, they wanted to help us to produce the oil because they
needed it. So we really can't say much about that. They did not impose any
conditions on us. We cannot sit around and say wait until, for example, the
united states says that we've begin a good country.
>> This Chinese-built conference hall is where the two presidents will sit
face to face. With the world at a loss over how the stop the war in Darfur,
China is under pressure to use its influence and force the Sudanese government
to accept United Nations peacekeepers and the ceasefire. Sudan's economy has
boomed on the back of its no-questions-asked relationship with the far east.
Jonah Fisher, bbc news, Khartoum.
>> Britain is sending 800 more troops to Afghanistan. The move comes as the
British head of NATO in the country, general David Richards, prepares to leave.
His time in Afghanistan coincided with the heaviest fighting there since 2001.
Our chief diplomatic correspondent -- our chief diplomatic correspondent has
been with the general during his last week in command and set us this report
from Kabul.
>> In the skies over Afghanistan, NATO's generals come and go on a trip to
the southern city of Kandahar, David Richard surveys his domain, expanded hugely
since he arrived. NATO forces now operating throughout this rugged land. This is
his last visit to the south, scene of so much intense fighting during his time
in charge. There's plenty of routine activity on the base today, but a sense,
too, that tough times lie ahead. For all this general Richard seems well pleased
with his nine months as isaf commander.
>> There's a lot that we still need to accomplish, and I do genuinely believe
that we've shown that NATO can fight and win these things. We have brought lots
of people together and things are looking better.
>> NATO can certainly call on greater resources than ever. There are still
complaints but new commitments will make the allianz much more capable -- the
alliance much more capable. This is an absolutely key moment for NATO. After the
heavy fighting of last year, there are lots of people predicting a spring
offensive, possibly in the coming weeks. The Americans have sent in lots of
extra men and machines for just such a possibility, but while NATO continues to
prove itself on the battlefield, just how much progress is really being made
towards putting this country together again? In countless villages across the
country, women are being encouraged to take out loans and set up small
businesses. It's a war on poverty that grabs fewer headlines than fighting in
the south. But even in Kabul, it's not hard to find people living in abject
conditions. Development and reconstruction mean little to returning refugees
clinging on in the capital's freezing slums. It's a world away from isaf's newly
opened $6 million joint operations centre. Here NATO partners sit together and
plan their war. The screens tell us incidents far and wide. As one headquarters
hands over to another, David Richards has
 come
to bid farewell. For all his success, he knows this operation has many, many
years to run. And so from one far-flung outpost to another, this great
international endeavour goes on. It's probably in better shape than it's ever
been, but it's hugely costly and its success is still far from assured. Paul
Adam, bbc news, Kabul.
>> And you can get more information on the news in this bulletin by logging
on to our web site, bbcnews.Com, and you can also have your say by clicking on
have your say link. <
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